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George's avatar

Sage overview of this document (Tome?). Especially vital: the importance of considering NNT as well as ARR in decision making. ie: take the population based paper and make it relevant to the person on your exam table.

Andrew Golden's avatar

As I reflected on this I recalled the original work on guidelines done in 1990 by Dr. David Eddy, Dr. David Eddy, the father of the process of developing clinical guidelines, wrote a landmark article in JAMA in 1990, “the Anatomy of a Decision”. This was the first in a series in which he outlined clinical guideline development.

Eddy writes, “In general, the goal of a decision regarding health practice is to choose the action that is most likely to deliver the outcome the patient finds desirable”. He divides clinical decision making into 2 steps. The clinical analysis step which uses clinical evidence and compares benefits and risks and cost to come up with the “best” options. That is more or less what we do implicitly whenever we are recommending a treatment for a patient. The second step is to weigh or compare these options. He uses two steps because the two steps involve different thought processes, have different anchors, and are performed by different people. The first step is a question of facts and based on empirical evidence, involving a scientific process, in other words, uses our left brain. It is performed by scientific experts. In this step, the doctor is the expert. In contrast, the second step is a question not of facts but of personal values or preferences of the patient. Different patients can have different preferences. In this step, the patient is the expert. Eddy says “to the extent that science is involved in this step at all, it is the science of discovering peoples’ preferences.” It is the patient whose preferences count because they will have to live or die with the outcomes. And assuming that each patient is accurately informed regarding outcomes, they may each chose a different outcome that is the correct choice for themselves.

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