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Luis Alvarez's avatar

The concept of shortage has elements of exaggeration or half truth.

-Population is aging and as people live longer, there will be a need for PCPs.

-US, Japan, EU and UK birth rates are below population replacement age. Therefore at some point, population will decline or is already declining (Japan).

-There are plenty of MDs. But few people want to live in rural country.

To have an excess of MDs is a bad idea as:

-They get lower pay

-Large number of NPs that graduate every year will be allowed one day to have their own solo practice

-High cost of medical education

To graduate MDs and NPs like a factory is good for local politicians and for the business of universities but, current demographics suggests that they are eating tomorrow's lunch.

Economics has a strong principal named "reversion to the mean"; it is as strong as gravity. If a factory overproduces, it decreases production next year. If supply of MDs is too high and demand falls, the number of students will decrease. But as you can not "delete" MDs and NPs, reversion to the mean could take decades.

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