If clinical trial prediction markets were already a thing and you were trying to make money by being correct (especially where others are wrong) - what trials would you be betting on and what strategies would you be using?
A very well thought out post, Paul, I'm sure you are correct. In a selfish world I would bet on (1) non-inferiority of any trial comparing any two anti-retrovirals from different classes to standard of care in patients with suppressed HIV (there's only ever been one exception to this rule). (2) any randomised trial of a new diagnostic having no effect on patient relevant outcomes- very few exceptions to this rule. https://thediagnosticdetective.substack.com/p/why-randomised-trials-of-diagnostic
Thank you, that's a very interesting point (and so is your article)! I just posted a separate comment for others to talk about the strategies that they would use if clinical trials prediction markets were already a thing.
If clinical trial prediction markets were already a thing and you were trying to make money by being correct (especially where others are wrong) - what trials would you be betting on and what strategies would you be using?
A very well thought out post, Paul, I'm sure you are correct. In a selfish world I would bet on (1) non-inferiority of any trial comparing any two anti-retrovirals from different classes to standard of care in patients with suppressed HIV (there's only ever been one exception to this rule). (2) any randomised trial of a new diagnostic having no effect on patient relevant outcomes- very few exceptions to this rule. https://thediagnosticdetective.substack.com/p/why-randomised-trials-of-diagnostic
Thank you, that's a very interesting point (and so is your article)! I just posted a separate comment for others to talk about the strategies that they would use if clinical trials prediction markets were already a thing.
Fear and greed drive the market. Don’t chase trends. Even in clinical trials/studies.