I am not a fan of prediction markets. No good can come from them and their ability to influence anything they are involved in - politics, research, etc. In my opinion, they should be banned.
I couldn’t agree more with Dr. Windisch-medical studies leave much to be desired at the present time – adding prediction markets will only create further predictable and unpredictable issues – it will compound the confounders-
The financial markets were once defined as “perfect competition“. That means that everyone had the same information, and no one in theory had an advantage over someone else – that is laughable now, and the markets are closer to a casino– keep research, with all of it’s warts as highlighted at SM, at least
If clinical trial prediction markets were already a thing and you were trying to make money by being correct (especially where others are wrong) - what trials would you be betting on and what strategies would you be using?
A very well thought out post, Paul, I'm sure you are correct. In a selfish world I would bet on (1) non-inferiority of any trial comparing any two anti-retrovirals from different classes to standard of care in patients with suppressed HIV (there's only ever been one exception to this rule). (2) any randomised trial of a new diagnostic having no effect on patient relevant outcomes- very few exceptions to this rule. https://thediagnosticdetective.substack.com/p/why-randomised-trials-of-diagnostic
Thank you, that's a very interesting point (and so is your article)! I just posted a separate comment for others to talk about the strategies that they would use if clinical trials prediction markets were already a thing.
I am not a fan of prediction markets. No good can come from them and their ability to influence anything they are involved in - politics, research, etc. In my opinion, they should be banned.
Another source of corruption ---not a great idea. They say some people will bet on anything. I wouldn't have bet on this one.
Insider trading…predatory market manipulation….what could possibly go wrong.
There is a limit to the utility of wisdom of the crowds…and this is one of them.
I couldn’t agree more with Dr. Windisch-medical studies leave much to be desired at the present time – adding prediction markets will only create further predictable and unpredictable issues – it will compound the confounders-
The financial markets were once defined as “perfect competition“. That means that everyone had the same information, and no one in theory had an advantage over someone else – that is laughable now, and the markets are closer to a casino– keep research, with all of it’s warts as highlighted at SM, at least
attempting to seek out the truth –
Ben Hourani MBA
If clinical trial prediction markets were already a thing and you were trying to make money by being correct (especially where others are wrong) - what trials would you be betting on and what strategies would you be using?
A very well thought out post, Paul, I'm sure you are correct. In a selfish world I would bet on (1) non-inferiority of any trial comparing any two anti-retrovirals from different classes to standard of care in patients with suppressed HIV (there's only ever been one exception to this rule). (2) any randomised trial of a new diagnostic having no effect on patient relevant outcomes- very few exceptions to this rule. https://thediagnosticdetective.substack.com/p/why-randomised-trials-of-diagnostic
Thank you, that's a very interesting point (and so is your article)! I just posted a separate comment for others to talk about the strategies that they would use if clinical trials prediction markets were already a thing.
Fear and greed drive the market. Don’t chase trends. Even in clinical trials/studies.