Is RFK Jr to blame for the Samoa measles outbreak? An empirical analysis of published scholarly papers and news stories
Was RFK Jr blamed contemporaneously or only in retrospect?
Just out, we have a new paper on a provocative question. What factors were blamed for the 2019 Samoa measles outbreak in the peer reviewed literature and news coverage? At the time, and now 5 years later?
First, we assembled every single peer reviewed article and mainstream media news story on the Samoa measles outbreak. 163 studies met our criteria.
We got a mix of articles: 96 news stories and 67 scholarly articles.
Then we tabulated what factors were to blame, by year, and by story. Here are the results. The top 3 are individual people, the bottom 5 are systemic failures. Blue/yes means these factors were blamed in the article.
Here it is among peer reviewed studies only.
There are 3 key findings.
First,
“Under-vaccination was the most common reason for the outbreak (n=94; 57.7%), with News articles more likely than scholarly articles to list this reason (69.8% vs 40.3%; p<0.001). Misinformation/anti-vax efforts were common (n=44; 27.0%), with News articles more likely than scholarly articles to list this reason (38.5% vs 10.4%; p<0.001). Eighteen articles (11.0%) listed public mistrust of the system as a reason, and this reason was more commonly mentioned in scholarly articles than News articles (17.9% vs 6.2%; p=0.04). Twenty-four articles (14.7%) mentioned the suspension of the immunization program as a reason..”
Second,
“Robert F Kennedy was seldom held responsible for the Samoa measles outbreak between 2019 and 2023 (18.5% of articles), but often held responsible between 2024-present (100%).”
“Only Robert F Kennedy was blamed more often in the last year than prior years (100% vs 18.5%; p<0.001).”
Third,
“There were no differences between the rate with which any named individual was mentioned with the exception of Mr. Kennedy. News articles were more likely than scholarly articles to blame Mr. Kennedy (33.3% vs 4.5%; p<0.001). Forty-six articles (28.2%) mentioned the two nurses who incorrectly mixed the vaccine, with news articles more likely to mention them than scholarly articles (40.6% vs 10.4%; p<0.001).”
What’s the take away?
Academic articles are superior to the news because they understand that public health crises like the Samoa measles outbreak tend to be multifactorial. You have 2 nurses kill 2 kids by drawing up the vaccine with the wrong diluent. They hide the vials to cover it up. The government suspends the vaccine program. The population — poor with limited health literacy — grab on to conspiracy theories and fear the MMR vaccine.
Poverty, poor health care infrastructure, poor health literacy, a faith in traditional and alternative medicines, all coalesce to lead to an outbreak. News stories want to blame specific people, but academics generally want to understand how systems fail. MMR vaccine rates went from 70 percent in 2017 to 30 percent in 2018.
Then, RFK Jr visited the island in 2019, and the outbreak began a month or two later. At the time, contemporary articles seldom blamed him. But then, in 2024, he starts running for president and then becomes the HHS nominee. Now, all the news articles and scholarly papers (albeit not many of those) blame him.
To me it doesn’t pass the sniff test.
We have to be honest when it comes to health policy commentary. RFK Jr says many things that are wrong, and I have fact checked him on at least two occasions.
And
But he also has some good ideas. We have to be able to call balls and strikes. We can hold him responsible for things he said and did, but saying he has blood on his hands for the Samoa measles outbreak is hyperbole. No one thought that at the time, and it can’t be true because there are so many other factors that led to that tragedy.
As we enter the confirmation hearings, it is important to know the history of what journalists and scholars thought about the 2019 Samoa measles outbreak.
Have you considered that Academic articles Could be backed by individuals on the peer review that have conflict of interests? An independent review to check studies could in fact, revile outcomes that give analyses that define studies with a different outcome. Let’s look back on Mr. Fauci’s ( an insult to call him a doctor ) fundings on studies that gave approvals on many pharmaceuticals that are now being acknowledged as not safe and effective .
Nothing has a clear and accurate definition, there are synergistic effects on many things in humanity .
“You have 2 nurses kill 2 kids by drawing up the vaccine with the wrong diluent. They hide the vials to cover it up.”
This is EXACTLY why people no longer trust healthcare personnel and agencies, cover ups. Implicit in this statement is: “It was only two children.” How about f-ck you? Not only does medical error kill people, but so do the many of the chemical concoctions injected into people. Or have we already memory holed Covid vaxxines? Color me shocked that people don’t trust healthcare “professionals.”