hi Vinay. can you confirm what the 80-odd children died of in her measles outbreak? According to a report I read that claimed that samples from the deceased were sent to a Melbourne, Australia laboratory, they found no trace of pathogenic levels of the virus. They instead found more compelling viruses.
Measles is a very mild infection for most people. I had it 60-years ago, along with mumps. I'm here to tell you that they were nothing burgers. Probably made my immune system stronger. My grand kids just got over chicken pox, another nothing burger.
I hardly ever get colds and flus and I breezed through Covid in mid-2024.
Vinay, I have been listening/reading you for a few years now and you have come to remind me of a better educated, smarter Joe Rogan. Though I doubt he's also angling for a position in HHS.
Nobody is saying that RFK Jr. caused the outbreak in Samoa. What people are criticizing is his decision to spread inane misinformation on vaccines in a time of crisis for the people of Samoa. This article argues against a strawman.
"Nobody is saying that RFK Jr. caused the outbreak in Samoa" Really? That's certainly the impression that credulous readers would get from the headlines and the MSM articles and especially from several Democratic Senators including Elizabeth Warren.
This is all so tiresome. RFK jr is personally responsible for things that happen in Samoa, while Bill Gates runs around vaxxing children for polio in Sudan and Chad which directly causes the emergence of wild polio, and nothing is said about that. Typical.
Do you expect them not to ask why he was spreading BS anti-vaccine propaganda in the middle of a pandemic? He is trying to be the director of HHS and will directly impact vaccination and health policy. What he was doing in Samoa is relevant.
I enjoy reading Sensible Medicine because it purports to bring rigorous scientific and statistical methods to medical research, a field that appears to this scientifically literate layman to be in need of more rigor. Where is that rigor in this article? We don't know for certain and will never know to what degree RFK impacted vaccine hesitancy in Samoa or anywhere else. Counting articles in the past versus the present is not a scientific study. Even if we could scientifically determine his culpability, it's beside the point. The relevant questions are the scientific one: does lack of vaccination cause medical harm, and the political one, will giving huge power over the American medical establishment to someone who has a history of discouraging vaccination impact vaccination rates and overall health outcomes.
No, lack of vaccination does NOT cause medical harm. Denmark's vax schedule has less than half the jabs of the US, and healthier kids. There are other ways to create healthy kids... If you weren't so obsessed with the idea that health comes in a needle.
Their bottom line: “The measles outbreak in Samoa was not caused by Kennedy. Though he was a loud promoter of the talking points common to the anti-vaccine movement at this time, he was not responsible for lowering vaccination rates to the depths they reached in early 2019."
Plenty of links there to primary sources if you want to dig deeper.
The real question is what did RFK do to help resolve the problem in Samoa? Maybe his anti-vax sentiment was too late to exasperate a bad situation, but did he work to reverse the trend? If not, why would anyone consider him qualified to now be in charge of health care policy in the US?
Read the Snopes "fact-check". On Nov 19, 2019, RFK sent a letter to the Samoa Prime Minister about the outbreak. In addition, "Organizations like Children's Health Defense had reached out ... I [Tamasese] was linked into a group of medical professionals by Mr. Kennedy and we worked on a protocol to ensure effective treatment [which included Vitamin A. which the WHO also recommends].
The Snopes link also says "A quantitative assessment ... is likely impossible" and Kennedy's assertion that he "had nothing to do with people not vaccinating in Samoa" is not credible. At least to me, Kennedy comes off quite negatively in Snopes.
I would agree that RFK's statement was overly broad and not strictly correct; "nothing to do"? Maybe 0.0001% impact? 1%? I don't know.
Here's my longer comment you can find elsewhere in the Comments:
Snope's bottom line was that “The measles outbreak in Samoa was not caused by Kennedy" Although, “this does not exclude the possibility that Kennedy exacerbated these existing conditions. … by “his platforming of the two primary influencers advocating against vaccination in Samoa.”
However, I'm not convinced that RFK actually “exacerbated” the Samoa outbreak to a significant degree I'd suggest readers follow the Snopes links to read the source material to make up their own mind on this point.
Somewhat unrelated, but just wanted to say that it's my belief (based on observation of RFK's interviews, books, etc.) that he is OPEN to learning and changing his position on things. Perhaps if he had the opportunity to work with physicians who are also open-minded to his thoughts and ideas, he could be more well-informed. Science goes both ways - any good physician will learn from their patients, while creating a safe environment for them to also hear what the physician has to offer. Vilifying one another just breaks down the opportunity for advancement.
I think this compilation is consistent with the refutation of RFK jr being “personally” or “singularly” or “individually” responsible for the Samoa outbreak.
Simply going by the temporal relationship necessary for causation, the drop in vax rates more than a year before the outbreak is far more of a plausible smoking gun than 1 guy’s visit a few months prior.
However, given the primacy of the role played by “under-vaccination” and “misinformation/anti vax efforts”, it is more difficult to parse his “contribution” to those broader factors.
So I would place his culpability to be within the realm of the general anti vax crowd overall, rather than it being a personal indictment.
I just did a mini-dive into the Samoa measles story. I found a "fact-check" by Snopes that was, for the most part, even-handed (although I think some of their links don't fully support their point). Plenty of links to primary source material to allow anyone to make up their own mind and to read RFK's own words on the subject.
Snope's bottom line was that “The measles outbreak in Samoa was not caused by Kennedy. Though he was a loud promoter of the talking points common to the anti-vaccine movement at this time, he was not responsible for lowering vaccination rates to the depths they reached in early 2019. A tragic accident in 2018 and a controversial pause in vaccination bears primary responsibility for creating those conditions.”
Snopes also claims that “this does not exclude the possibility that Kennedy exacerbated these existing conditions" … by “his platforming of the two primary influencers advocating against vaccination in Samoa.” However, I'm not convinced that RFK actually “exacerbated” the Samoa outbreak to a significant degree I'd suggest readers follow the Snopes links to read the source material to make up their own mind on this point.
Certainly wrong to outright put the blame on RFT for Samoa, but him using that event as a reason to sow doubt in the safety of the MMR vaccine and vaccines in general is what most worries me. He has some very good ides but in most of his communications appears to be very anti-science and evidence.
P.S. Here's an example from "Children's Health Defense" (CHF, RFK's former organization): Getting the Measles in Modern-Day America—Not Nearly as Dangerous as Portrayed
Example number 100 of how sensible medicine, which used to be so good for those of us who are medical conservatives, has become such crap in the last 6 months. Unreadable, really. RFKs organization, which he profits millions from, has clearly linked evidence to the outbreak. Who gives a shit if it’s not the only reason? The dude is nominated to lead our public health agencies. Just outrageous that any physician could even consider him a suitable candidate.
Unless you give specific examples, you're just throwing out unsupported allegations that Prasad already rebutted: vaccination rates tanked to 30% in 2018 (the year BEFORE RFK visited Samoa) because 2 children DIED from the improperly reconstituted MMR vaccine they were given.
If ANY routine medication or vaccine were improperly handled to the point where 2 US children died, most of us would avoid that med or vaccine. In fact, that did happen with Tylenol, remember?
It seems you prefer blaming the messenger to fixing the problem.
It is now clear that the fear of the withdrawal of the IPOL Polio vaccine is totally unwarranted. All of the infant vaccines use a different Polio vaccine. They do not use IPOL. The infant vaccines are multi pronged against multiple viruses including polio. The use of IPOL would mean an additional immunization shot when the other combination shots include polio protection. The IPOL is irrelevant in herd immunity and protection. It is only used in adults in the majority of cases. I have not seen this discussed or presented in any media presentation. It is a disgrace.
I'm afraid that most people seeing your headline -- including the Senate and their aides -- will not bother to read further, and assume that you meant it as a statement, not a question.
When so many partisan journalists and their editors gleefully employ headlines that scream unfounded accusations against RFK, Jr., why would you think it's enough of a response use as headline a question whose wording reflects those accusations? Why not just state the fact: Samoa's measles outbreak was caused by events that preceded RFK's visit, so Democrats (and Republicans, for that matter) need to stop all the vitriolic hyperbole and discuss the facts!
I don't claim to have followed the Samoa story closely, but the bar for someone to lead HHS seems like it should be higher than "wasn't the proximate cause of deaths from measles on Samoa" and should be something more like "understood what led to the measles deaths on Samoa and encouraged the appropriate medical interventions to end the epidemic rather than being on the side of the measles virus." Do you feel RFK Jr. meets that second bar?
Snopes has plenty of useful links to primary source material to allow anyone to make up their own mind and to read RFK's own words on the Samoa outbreak, e.g:
Snope's bottom line was that “The measles outbreak in Samoa was not caused by Kennedy" Although, “this does not exclude the possibility that Kennedy exacerbated these existing conditions. … by “his platforming of the two primary influencers advocating against vaccination in Samoa.”
However, I'm not convinced that RFK actually “exacerbated” the Samoa outbreak to a significant degree I'd suggest readers follow the Snopes links to read the source material to make up their own mind on this point.
why not? if i send you a letter of condolence or sympathy after the death of your loved one, does that mean i caused said death? he can have no control and still write a letter expressing sadness and offering advice as to how to how questions surrounding those deaths might be answered
Thank you for this. Just as you said, we have to be objective. Perhaps, we need to be better at presenting scholarly article findings to the general public.
hi Vinay. can you confirm what the 80-odd children died of in her measles outbreak? According to a report I read that claimed that samples from the deceased were sent to a Melbourne, Australia laboratory, they found no trace of pathogenic levels of the virus. They instead found more compelling viruses.
Measles is a very mild infection for most people. I had it 60-years ago, along with mumps. I'm here to tell you that they were nothing burgers. Probably made my immune system stronger. My grand kids just got over chicken pox, another nothing burger.
I hardly ever get colds and flus and I breezed through Covid in mid-2024.
Vinay, I have been listening/reading you for a few years now and you have come to remind me of a better educated, smarter Joe Rogan. Though I doubt he's also angling for a position in HHS.
wish you had been there to correct senator warren, the lying shrew
Nobody is saying that RFK Jr. caused the outbreak in Samoa. What people are criticizing is his decision to spread inane misinformation on vaccines in a time of crisis for the people of Samoa. This article argues against a strawman.
"Nobody is saying that RFK Jr. caused the outbreak in Samoa" Really? That's certainly the impression that credulous readers would get from the headlines and the MSM articles and especially from several Democratic Senators including Elizabeth Warren.
This is all so tiresome. RFK jr is personally responsible for things that happen in Samoa, while Bill Gates runs around vaxxing children for polio in Sudan and Chad which directly causes the emergence of wild polio, and nothing is said about that. Typical.
It doesn’t cause wild polio, but keep lying through your teeth.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/sep/02/vaccine-derived-polio-spreads-in-africa-after-defeat-of-wild-virus
Do you expect them not to ask why he was spreading BS anti-vaccine propaganda in the middle of a pandemic? He is trying to be the director of HHS and will directly impact vaccination and health policy. What he was doing in Samoa is relevant.
I enjoy reading Sensible Medicine because it purports to bring rigorous scientific and statistical methods to medical research, a field that appears to this scientifically literate layman to be in need of more rigor. Where is that rigor in this article? We don't know for certain and will never know to what degree RFK impacted vaccine hesitancy in Samoa or anywhere else. Counting articles in the past versus the present is not a scientific study. Even if we could scientifically determine his culpability, it's beside the point. The relevant questions are the scientific one: does lack of vaccination cause medical harm, and the political one, will giving huge power over the American medical establishment to someone who has a history of discouraging vaccination impact vaccination rates and overall health outcomes.
No, lack of vaccination does NOT cause medical harm. Denmark's vax schedule has less than half the jabs of the US, and healthier kids. There are other ways to create healthy kids... If you weren't so obsessed with the idea that health comes in a needle.
"We don't know for certain and will never know to what degree RFK impacted vaccine hesitancy in Samoa or anywhere else."
I found a "fact-check" by Snopes that was, for the most part, even-handed:
https://www.snopes.com/news/2024/12/31/rfk-jr-samoa-measles-epidemic-2019/
Their bottom line: “The measles outbreak in Samoa was not caused by Kennedy. Though he was a loud promoter of the talking points common to the anti-vaccine movement at this time, he was not responsible for lowering vaccination rates to the depths they reached in early 2019."
Plenty of links there to primary sources if you want to dig deeper.
The real question is what did RFK do to help resolve the problem in Samoa? Maybe his anti-vax sentiment was too late to exasperate a bad situation, but did he work to reverse the trend? If not, why would anyone consider him qualified to now be in charge of health care policy in the US?
Read the Snopes "fact-check". On Nov 19, 2019, RFK sent a letter to the Samoa Prime Minister about the outbreak. In addition, "Organizations like Children's Health Defense had reached out ... I [Tamasese] was linked into a group of medical professionals by Mr. Kennedy and we worked on a protocol to ensure effective treatment [which included Vitamin A. which the WHO also recommends].
The Snopes link also says "A quantitative assessment ... is likely impossible" and Kennedy's assertion that he "had nothing to do with people not vaccinating in Samoa" is not credible. At least to me, Kennedy comes off quite negatively in Snopes.
I would agree that RFK's statement was overly broad and not strictly correct; "nothing to do"? Maybe 0.0001% impact? 1%? I don't know.
Here's my longer comment you can find elsewhere in the Comments:
Snope's bottom line was that “The measles outbreak in Samoa was not caused by Kennedy" Although, “this does not exclude the possibility that Kennedy exacerbated these existing conditions. … by “his platforming of the two primary influencers advocating against vaccination in Samoa.”
However, I'm not convinced that RFK actually “exacerbated” the Samoa outbreak to a significant degree I'd suggest readers follow the Snopes links to read the source material to make up their own mind on this point.
Somewhat unrelated, but just wanted to say that it's my belief (based on observation of RFK's interviews, books, etc.) that he is OPEN to learning and changing his position on things. Perhaps if he had the opportunity to work with physicians who are also open-minded to his thoughts and ideas, he could be more well-informed. Science goes both ways - any good physician will learn from their patients, while creating a safe environment for them to also hear what the physician has to offer. Vilifying one another just breaks down the opportunity for advancement.
I think this compilation is consistent with the refutation of RFK jr being “personally” or “singularly” or “individually” responsible for the Samoa outbreak.
Simply going by the temporal relationship necessary for causation, the drop in vax rates more than a year before the outbreak is far more of a plausible smoking gun than 1 guy’s visit a few months prior.
However, given the primacy of the role played by “under-vaccination” and “misinformation/anti vax efforts”, it is more difficult to parse his “contribution” to those broader factors.
So I would place his culpability to be within the realm of the general anti vax crowd overall, rather than it being a personal indictment.
I just did a mini-dive into the Samoa measles story. I found a "fact-check" by Snopes that was, for the most part, even-handed (although I think some of their links don't fully support their point). Plenty of links to primary source material to allow anyone to make up their own mind and to read RFK's own words on the subject.
https://www.snopes.com/news/2024/12/31/rfk-jr-samoa-measles-epidemic-2019/
Snope's bottom line was that “The measles outbreak in Samoa was not caused by Kennedy. Though he was a loud promoter of the talking points common to the anti-vaccine movement at this time, he was not responsible for lowering vaccination rates to the depths they reached in early 2019. A tragic accident in 2018 and a controversial pause in vaccination bears primary responsibility for creating those conditions.”
Snopes also claims that “this does not exclude the possibility that Kennedy exacerbated these existing conditions" … by “his platforming of the two primary influencers advocating against vaccination in Samoa.” However, I'm not convinced that RFK actually “exacerbated” the Samoa outbreak to a significant degree I'd suggest readers follow the Snopes links to read the source material to make up their own mind on this point.
Certainly wrong to outright put the blame on RFT for Samoa, but him using that event as a reason to sow doubt in the safety of the MMR vaccine and vaccines in general is what most worries me. He has some very good ides but in most of his communications appears to be very anti-science and evidence.
since there is no good science to support the childhood vaccine schedule as it exists in the USA, i'd say calling RFKjr anti-science is incorrect
"most of his communications appears to be very anti-science and evidence."
Example? I've found the contrary. Here's some links to some of RFK's writing about Samoa and measles:
https://archive.is/7craV and https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/lsamoa-medical-freedom-hero-court-case-dismissed/ and https://www.respectfulinsolence.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/RFKletterSamoanPM.pdf
P.S. Here's an example from "Children's Health Defense" (CHF, RFK's former organization): Getting the Measles in Modern-Day America—Not Nearly as Dangerous as Portrayed
Dr. Alan Palmer October 24, 2019
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/getting-the-measles-in-modern-day-america-not-nearly-as-dangerous-as-portrayed/
Example number 100 of how sensible medicine, which used to be so good for those of us who are medical conservatives, has become such crap in the last 6 months. Unreadable, really. RFKs organization, which he profits millions from, has clearly linked evidence to the outbreak. Who gives a shit if it’s not the only reason? The dude is nominated to lead our public health agencies. Just outrageous that any physician could even consider him a suitable candidate.
Unless you give specific examples, you're just throwing out unsupported allegations that Prasad already rebutted: vaccination rates tanked to 30% in 2018 (the year BEFORE RFK visited Samoa) because 2 children DIED from the improperly reconstituted MMR vaccine they were given.
If ANY routine medication or vaccine were improperly handled to the point where 2 US children died, most of us would avoid that med or vaccine. In fact, that did happen with Tylenol, remember?
It seems you prefer blaming the messenger to fixing the problem.
It is now clear that the fear of the withdrawal of the IPOL Polio vaccine is totally unwarranted. All of the infant vaccines use a different Polio vaccine. They do not use IPOL. The infant vaccines are multi pronged against multiple viruses including polio. The use of IPOL would mean an additional immunization shot when the other combination shots include polio protection. The IPOL is irrelevant in herd immunity and protection. It is only used in adults in the majority of cases. I have not seen this discussed or presented in any media presentation. It is a disgrace.
Respectfully
Gerald M Casey MD
I'm afraid that most people seeing your headline -- including the Senate and their aides -- will not bother to read further, and assume that you meant it as a statement, not a question.
When so many partisan journalists and their editors gleefully employ headlines that scream unfounded accusations against RFK, Jr., why would you think it's enough of a response use as headline a question whose wording reflects those accusations? Why not just state the fact: Samoa's measles outbreak was caused by events that preceded RFK's visit, so Democrats (and Republicans, for that matter) need to stop all the vitriolic hyperbole and discuss the facts!
This is extremely helpful, thank you for your work.
I don't claim to have followed the Samoa story closely, but the bar for someone to lead HHS seems like it should be higher than "wasn't the proximate cause of deaths from measles on Samoa" and should be something more like "understood what led to the measles deaths on Samoa and encouraged the appropriate medical interventions to end the epidemic rather than being on the side of the measles virus." Do you feel RFK Jr. meets that second bar?
define "appropriate medical interventions." how did public health do on covid considering the USA had the highest per capita death rate in the world
“Do you feel RFK Jr. meets that second bar?”
I just did a mini-dive into the Samoa measles story. I found a "fact-check" by Snopes that was, for the most part, even-handed (although I think some of their links don't fully support their point). https://www.snopes.com/news/2024/12/31/rfk-jr-samoa-measles-epidemic-2019/
Snopes has plenty of useful links to primary source material to allow anyone to make up their own mind and to read RFK's own words on the Samoa outbreak, e.g:
https://archive.is/7craV and https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/lsamoa-medical-freedom-hero-court-case-dismissed/ and https://www.respectfulinsolence.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/RFKletterSamoanPM.pdf
Snope's bottom line was that “The measles outbreak in Samoa was not caused by Kennedy" Although, “this does not exclude the possibility that Kennedy exacerbated these existing conditions. … by “his platforming of the two primary influencers advocating against vaccination in Samoa.”
However, I'm not convinced that RFK actually “exacerbated” the Samoa outbreak to a significant degree I'd suggest readers follow the Snopes links to read the source material to make up their own mind on this point.
Of course he does. Read a book. Start with a few of RFK’s.
why would you expect him to? he is not a figure in samoa. he has no control over samoa's medical policies.
why not? if i send you a letter of condolence or sympathy after the death of your loved one, does that mean i caused said death? he can have no control and still write a letter expressing sadness and offering advice as to how to how questions surrounding those deaths might be answered
Thank you for this. Just as you said, we have to be objective. Perhaps, we need to be better at presenting scholarly article findings to the general public.