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JDK's avatar

I thought Surprise Theory is G. L. S. Shackle beginning in the 30s.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516300671

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Sander Greenland's avatar

Thanks for the cite but I am discussing surprisals as found in information theory, not surprise theory - see my post below for "more sophisticated treatments" of surprisal interpretations for P-values and CIs.

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